Harris now beating Trump in the polls?

How does that work?

Here is a Reuters headline, “Exclusive: Harris leads Trump 44% to 42% in US presidential race, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds.”

From 538 we can see Biden currently at 39% approval and 56% disapproval. By comparison, Harris is currently at 38% approval and 51% disapproval. Biden and Harris are essentially the same in terms of their political popularity.

Now compare Biden to Trump. In the Real Clear Polling average, Trump has a 3-point advantage over Biden, ranging from -2 to +6, with all but one poll showing Trump ahead of Biden.

So now we see Harris, as unpopular as her boss Biden, with Biden behind Trump, suggesting that Harris should also be behind Trump. Yet Harris is now ahead of Trump?

In elementary school math, this was the transitive property. If A=B and B=C, then A=C. Instead, somehow A became greater than C. This poll failed basic arithmetic.

How to explain it? Partially through poorly sampled polls, partially through the “anyone but Biden” phenomenon, and lastly due to the honeymoon phase bump that Harris is enjoying, at least for now.

I’ll have more in a soon to be published article. Crazy times…